Kyrgyz Republic Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis

A Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) provides valuable information to support the development of an integrated national financing framework (INFF). DSAs identify the financial risks of a country in relation to its debt exposure and evaluate a country’s ability to make principal and interest payments.

This joint World Bank/IMF DSA of the Kyrgyz Republic is, for the first time, based on the revised framework for low-income countries. Results of the analysis indicate moderate risk of debt distress for both external and overall public debt. However, the debt outlook remains vulnerable, especially to a deceleration in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and exports growth and the depreciation of the Kyrgyzstani Som.

To address these vulnerabilities, the authorities need to remain cautious when contracting and guaranteeing new debt, maintain fiscal discipline, improve public investment management, and continue improving the business environment to maintain the export potential of the country after the main gold mine closes in 2026.

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